U.S. Apple Price Analysis – April 2025
Summary
- Apple prices in the U.S. have declined sharply over the past year, with March 2025’s average retail price at $1.484 per pound, down 2.1% from March 2024 and down 14.4% from six months prior.
- Record-high domestic apple production and falling demand have driven prices lower, with some growers receiving less than their cost of production[4].
- Trade policy uncertainty and new tariffs are emerging as key risks for future pricing, potentially reversing recent declines if tariffs disrupt export markets or raise costs for imported apple products[4].
“These supply and demand imbalances severely disrupted the 2023/24 U.S. apple season causing prices to plummet... Now, as prices start to recover somewhat this season...the U.S. apple industry is bracing for yet another significant blow: tariffs.”[4]
Trends
Recent Price Movements (BLS Data)
| Month | Price ($/lb) | MoM Change (%) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | 1.484 | -3.4 | -2.1 |
| Feb 2025 | 1.536 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Jan 2025 | 1.531 | -2.1 | -1.2 |
| Dec 2024 | 1.564 | -9.5 | -2.3 |
- Over the last six months, prices fell by nearly 15%.
- The current price is slightly below its level one year ago.
Historical Context
- Prices peaked in late summer/fall of previous years (e.g., $1.805/lb in Oct '24), then dropped sharply through winter into spring.
- The current level ($1.484/lb) is among the lowest since early pandemic years.
Key Factors Affecting Prices
Supply-Side Drivers
- Record Production: The U.S harvested an all-time high of over 289 million bushels last season due to acreage growth, better yields, favorable weather, improved storage/sorting tech[4].
- Oversupply: High inventories pressured grower returns; many received payments below their cost of production—especially for premium varieties like Honeycrisp[4].
Demand-Side Drivers
- Falling Domestic Consumption: Per capita fresh apple consumption has declined by about 2 pounds per person since the mid-1990s[4].
- Weak Export Demand: Foreign demand was 13% below its peak a decade ago, further exacerbating oversupply issues[4].
External Events & Policy Impacts
Tariffs & Trade Tensions
- In early March-April '25, new rounds of reciprocal tariffs were imposed or threatened between the U.S., China, Mexico, and Canada—key trading partners for apples and processed products[4].
- While most fresh apples are domestically grown (U.S.=net exporter), processed apple products rely heavily on imports from China—which now face higher import taxes.
- Tariffs could:
- Make imported apples/products more expensive (raising costs for processors).
- Trigger retaliatory measures that reduce export opportunities abroad—potentially leading to domestic oversupply if exports fall further.
“Once the tariff is in place...limiting supply domestically and...driving prices up… On the fresh side…the US is a net exporter…but we do import some…and those would be subject [to] tariffs…”[4]
Weather & Natural Phenomena
- No major adverse weather events reported recently; last year’s fair weather contributed to record yields rather than crop losses.
Correlations & Outlook
- There is a strong correlation between periods of high supply/weak demand and sharp price drops—as seen throughout late '23 into early '25.
- Policy shocks such as new tariffs can quickly change market dynamics:
- If exports decline due to foreign retaliation or higher costs abroad, domestic supplies may swell further—putting renewed downward pressure on farmgate/apple retail prices unless offset by reduced imports or increased processing capacity.
- Conversely, if import restrictions meaningfully limit competitive produce inflows or raise input costs for processors reliant on foreign concentrate/puree/etc., consumer-facing product prices could rise even as raw fruit values remain weak.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead?
The near-term outlook remains volatile:
- If trade tensions escalate further—with sustained reciprocal tariffs—the risk grows that both export volumes will drop (hurting growers) while certain processed product categories see rising shelf-prices due to higher input/import costs.[4]
- For now: Apple retail pricing remains historically low due primaril