U.S. Chicken Price Analysis – April 2025
Summary
- Retail chicken prices in March 2025 averaged $2.064 per pound, up 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month.
- Prices have shown moderate but steady growth since late 2024, supported by strong domestic demand and higher beef prices.
- Production is rising modestly as feed costs decline, but export markets are under pressure from global competition.
- Long-term risks include declining broiler fertility rates, which could drive future cost increases if not addressed.
“Broiler prices are adjusted up in 2025 on recent price data and healthy demand.”
— USDA Economic Research Service[4]
Trends
Recent Price Movements (BLS Data)
| Month/Year | Avg Retail Price ($/lb) | MoM Change (%) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | 2.064 | +0.6 | +3.7 |
| Feb 2025 | 2.051 | -0.5 | +5.1 |
| Jan 2025 | 2.061 | +0 | +3.7 |
| Dec 2024 | 2.061 | -0.7 | +5.4 |
- The retail price has increased steadily over the past year, with a notable acceleration in the second half of 2024[historical_data_points].
- Wholesale broiler prices are projected to average $1.32/lb in 2025 (up from $1.29/lb in 2024), reflecting continued firm demand despite export headwinds[5].
Historical Perspective
- Over the last five years, chicken retail prices have risen from around $1.87/lb (March '20) to over $2/lb today—a cumulative increase of more than 10%.
- The sharpest increases occurred during periods of supply chain disruption and high feed costs (notably mid- to late-2022).
Key Factors Affecting Prices
Domestic Demand & Substitution Effects
- Higher beef and red meat prices continue to make chicken an attractive protein for consumers[4][3][5].
- Fast food/QSR expansion and processed food sector growth further support robust domestic consumption[3].
Production & Supply Chain
- Broiler production is forecasted to rise by about 1% in 2025, aided by lower feed costs—especially soybean meal—and heavier bird weights[4][5].
- Soybean meal costs have trended lower since mid-2024, reducing input expenses for producers[5].
- However, hatchability/fertility concerns may limit long-term supply growth if not mitigated[9][7].
Export Market Pressures
- U.S broiler exports fell by 7% in 2024; another drop of about 2% is expected this year, mainly due to competition from Brazil and other exporters eroding market share abroad—even as domestic pricing holds firm due to local demand strength[5].
Long-Term Risks: Declining Fertility Rates
“If current trends continue...hatchability rates could fall to around 60% by mid-century...causing bottlenecks and escalating costs associated with broiler chicken meat production.”
— Texas A&M Study [9][7]
- Recent research highlights a significant decline in U.S broiler breeder fertility rates—from ~75% hatchability now toward potentially just ~60% by mid-century—raising concerns about future production efficiency/costs if genetic or management interventions aren’t made soon.
Comparative Table: Chicken vs Other Proteins (April '25)
| Protein | Avg Retail Price ($/lb) |
|---|---|
| Chicken | ~$2–$2.06 |
| Beef | Significantly higher |
| Pork | Slightly higher |
(Beef/pork price details omitted here; see USDA ERS reports for latest figures.)
External Events Impacting Prices
- Lower global grain/feed input costs since late '24 have eased some upward pressure on poultry producer margins.[4][10]
- Global poultry meat prices remain stable overall despite avian influenza outbreaks elsewhere; U.S supplies/demand remain balanced.[8]
- No major weather or disease events reported recently that would significantly disrupt national supply chains.
Insights & Outlook
“Despite these global headwinds, domestic pricing is expected to hold...Higher beef prices and constrained red meat supplies are likely to underpin continued demand for chicken at home.”
— The Poultry Site [5]
- Expect continued moderate upward movement for retail chicken pricing through a