Ground Beef Price Analysis – United States (April 2025)
Summary
- Ground beef prices have reached record highs in early 2025, with March averaging $5.79 per pound according to BLS data and some industry sources reporting retail averages as high as $6.14 per pound.
- Prices are up 12.8% year-over-year and have risen steadily over the past several months.
- The main drivers are tight domestic cattle supplies, strong consumer demand, increased import tariffs on lean beef, and ongoing herd liquidation.
- Consumer sentiment has turned sharply negative due to inflation and tariff anxiety, but demand for ground beef remains robust so far.
“Lean beef is becoming scarcer as fewer beef and dairy cows are sent to slaughter, further accelerating the price growth for ground beef.”
— Brian Earnest, CoBank[5]
Trends
Recent Price Movements
| Month/Year | Avg. Price ($/lb) | MoM Change (%) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | 5.79 | +2.9 | +12.8 |
| Feb 2025 | 5.63 | +1.4 | +9.6 |
| Jan 2025 | 5.55 | -1.1 | +10.2 |
| Dec 2024 | 5.61 | -0.4 | +7.6 |
Source: BLS Data
- Prices have accelerated since late summer/fall of 2024 after a period of relative stability earlier in the year.
- The current price represents a historic high for ground beef[3][4].
Long-Term Perspective
- Since March 2019 ($3.73/lb), prices have climbed by over $2 per pound—a more than 50% increase in six years[3].
- Inflation-adjusted analysis shows that this is among the sharpest multi-year increases since World War II.
Key Factors Driving Prices
Supply Constraints
- U.S cattle inventories are at historically low levels due to prolonged herd liquidation; January USDA data showed only 27.9 million head of beef cows, down another percent from last year[1][4][5].
- Fewer cull cows mean less supply of lean trimmings needed for ground beef production—especially important because most U.S.-produced cattle yield fattier cuts.
Import Tariffs & Trade Policy
- New or increased tariffs on imported lean (processing) beef from major suppliers like Australia and Brazil are pushing up costs at a time when imports would otherwise help fill domestic gaps[2][1].
- While imports surged early in the year (+14% YTD through February), higher tariffs threaten future flows—raising both wholesale and retail prices further[2][4].
Demand Dynamics
- Despite rising prices, consumer demand has remained strong; businesses report little resistance so far from shoppers who recognize broader food inflation trends[1].
- Ground beef remains an affordable protein compared to steaks or roasts—even as all categories see price hikes.
Consumer Sentiment & Economic Context
- University of Michigan’s April survey shows consumer sentiment at its lowest since the early ‘80s amid expectations for higher inflation (now forecast at nearly 7% annually) and unemployment rates not seen since post-recession periods[4][5].
- Anxiety about tariffs may eventually dampen spending if economic conditions worsen—but this lag effect typically takes several months to materialize in actual sales data.
Comparative Table: Retail Beef Prices (March 2025)
| Product | Avg Price ($/lb) | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | $6–$6.14 | ~11–13% |
| All-Fresh Beef | $8–$8.42 | ~7% |
| Roasts | ~$8 | ~8% |
| Steaks | ~$11–$11.92 | ~3–3½% |
(Sources: BLS Data; Livestock Marketing Information Center)[1][4]
External Events & Correlations
Tariff policy changes: New import duties on Canadian/Mexican/Australian/Brazilian lean trimmings directly impact processing costs for ground products like hamburger meat.[2]
Weather/Natural Phenomena: No major weather events cited recently impacting feed or pasture conditions; feed markets remain stable despite volatility elsewhere.[4]
Policy Uncertainty: Broader trade policy unpredictability is fueling business anxiety—and could lead to reduced investment or hiring if sustained.[5]