U.S. Potato Price Analysis – April 2025
Summary
- Retail potato prices in March 2025 averaged $0.95 per pound, down 2.3% year-over-year and 0.7% from February.
- Potato stocks are down 6% from April 2024, reflecting tighter supply conditions[2].
- Open market prices remain under pressure due to surplus uncontracted potatoes and reduced processor contracts[4][9].
- Regional wholesale prices are steady but show some softness for certain varieties; export volumes have declined sharply[3][9].
- Global factors, including rising potato starch prices and European supply constraints, may influence future price volatility[5].
“Recent surpluses of open market potatoes have driven prices down and will keep them below breakeven levels in the near term.”[4]
Trends
Retail Price Movements (BLS Data)
| Month/Year | Avg. Retail Price ($/lb) | MoM Change (%) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | $0.950 | -0.7 | -2.3 |
| Feb 2025 | $0.957 | -1.6 | -1.4 |
| Jan 2025 | $0.973 | +2.5 | -0.5 |
| Mar 2024 | $0.972 | — |
Prices have trended downward since late fall, with a notable decline over the past six months (-5.8%).
Wholesale & Shipping Point Prices (April 17, Idaho Falls Example)[1]
- Size A Russet Potatoes (50 lb cartons): $30–$33 per carton
- Size B: $18–$24 per carton
- U.S No One Yellow Type (50 lb sacks): Size A mostly $23–$26
Regional spot market pricing is stable but not showing upward momentum.
Regional Market Highlights (April)[9][3]
Michigan
- Size A russets: $10–11 per 50-lb bale (10-lb bags), unchanged week-on-week.
Wisconsin
- Size A russets: $9–11 per 50-lb bale, stable.
Florida
- Round white potatoes: Down to $30–32 per 50-lb box from last week’s high of ~$34.
National Movement & Stocks
- Table potato shipments slightly up year-over-year for early April (+93k cwt).
- U.S potato stocks as of April are down by about 6% compared to last year, indicating tighter inventories despite soft retail pricing[2].
Recent Events & External Factors
Supply-Side Developments
- Contracted acreage for processing potatoes has been cut significantly—by an average of ~10%, with some growers facing cuts up to or above 40%. This has left more uncontracted potatoes on the open market, pushing those spot/open-market prices lower than breakeven for many growers.[4]
- The reduction in contract acres is expected to continue increasing open-market supplies through mid-year.[4]
- Weather delays in Midwest states like Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana have slowed planting progress; however, early planting conditions were favorable in Idaho.[3][9]
Demand-Side Developments
- Export demand weakened sharply:
- February exports fell by over 15% year-on-year, with fresh shipments dropping nearly 22%. Exports to Mexico plunged almost 40%, while Canada-bound shipments rose.[3]
- Imports exceeded exports by over $84 million in value during February.[3]
Global Influences
- Potato starch markets are tightening globally due to poor harvests in Germany and China’s increased domestic demand; this is causing higher input costs that could eventually feed into broader potato product pricing—even if fresh table stock remains soft near-term.[5]
- Ongoing global trade disruptions add uncertainty regarding future supply stability for processed products.[5]
Key Factors Affecting Prices
Correlations Noted:
Contract Reductions → Surplus Open Market Potatoes → Lower Spot Prices
“The reduction in contract acres could lead to an increase in open market potatoes…drive open market prices even lower.” [4]
Lower Stocks vs Weak Demand
Despite a drop in stored inventory (-6%), retail/spot price weakness persists due primarily to oversupply on the uncontracted/open side rather than strong consumer or export demand.
Export Declines → Domestic Surplus
Sharp drops particularly into Mexic