U.S. Tomato Price Analysis – April 2025
Summary
- Average retail price for tomatoes in March 2025: $1.82 per pound, down 12% from December and 11% year-over-year[2].
- Major policy change: A new 21% tariff on Mexican tomato imports will take effect July 14, 2025, likely causing significant price increases for consumers[3][5][8].
- Market context: The U.S. relies heavily on Mexican tomatoes (about 90% of imports), making domestic prices highly sensitive to trade disruptions[3][5][7].
- Recent weather events and regulatory changes are also impacting supply chains and could further pressure prices upward[7].
"If this [tariff] goes through, expect tomato prices to rise precipitously: The United States relies heavily on greenhouse-grown tomatoes, of which the Agriculture Department estimates 88 percent are imported, with most coming from Mexico."
— The New Republic[7]
Trends
Recent Price Movements
| Month | Avg. Price ($/lb) | Monthly Change (%) | Year-over-Year Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | $1.819 | -1.6 | -11.0 |
| Feb 2025 | $1.848 | -9.9 | -13.3 |
| Jan 2025 | $2.050 | -0.8 | -4.5 |
| Dec 2024 | $2.067 | +1.8 | +3.6 |
Prices have declined sharply since January; March’s average is at its lowest in over a year.
Year-over-year comparison shows an even steeper drop (-11%).
Retail Market Snapshot (April)
- Vine-ripe tomatoes: Weighted avg retail price ~$1.79/lb
- Roma/plum type: ~$1.20/lb
- Grape/cherry types: $2–$3 per pint package
(Retail ad data week ending April 11)[9]
Key Factors Affecting Prices
Trade Policy & Tariffs
New Tariff Announcement
- On April 15–16, the U.S announced a withdrawal from the Tomato Suspension Agreement with Mexico.
- Effective July 14, most Mexican tomato imports will face a ~21% duty[3][5][8].
- This follows lobbying by U.S growers who claim unfair competition.
- In past years when similar tariffs were imposed (e.g., May–August of prior years), consumer prices rose sharply.
Market Impact
- Mexico supplies about six out of every ten fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S.[5]
- With few alternative sources able to match volume or price:
“If they want to [impose duties], they'll simply pay 21% more for their tomatoes.” —Mexico’s Agriculture Minister[5]
Industry Warnings
- Border Trade Alliance warns that ending the agreement will “put upward pressure on prices” and disrupt supply chains supporting thousands of jobs and billions in GDP[6].
Weather Events & Supply Chain Disruptions
Recent torrential rains across Texas and Midwest have caused millions in crop losses—potentially tightening domestic supply just as tariffs hit imported volumes.[7]
Cuts to USDA programs supporting farm infrastructure may further reduce resilience against such shocks.
Domestic Production Trends
While field-grown tomato acreage is stable for fresh market sales, processing tomato acreage is declining due to high inventories and rising interest rates making storage costlier—this mainly affects processed products but can influence overall market dynamics if shortages spill over.[10]
Comparative Table: Pre-Tariff vs Post-Tariff Outlook (Projected)
| Factor | Pre-Tariff (Spring '25) | Post-Tariff (Summer/Fall '25) |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Retail Price/lb | ~$1.80 | Projected increase; some estimates suggest up to ~20–30% higher depending on pass-through effects[1][3] |
| Import Share | ~90% from Mexico | Potential reduction if demand shifts or substitution occurs; limited alternatives available |
| Consumer Impact | Lower grocery bills | Higher costs for salads/ketchup/etc.; broad food inflation risk |
Notable Correlations & Insights
- There is a strong correlation between trade policy changes—especially tariffs—and rapid increases in consumer tomato prices.
- Heavy reliance on Mexican imports means any disruption has outsized effects compared with other produce categories.
- Weather-related crop losses amplify vulnerability during periods of import restriction.
- Regulatory cuts affecting food safety may coincid